Sunday, January 5, 2014

FNMA Epic Run Update

1/5/2014 update
Wrote about FNMA first here :
Since then FNMA has risen over 100%+  and i believe there is more to go.  pretty good return on your $$ wouldnt you say?

Also a billionaire hedge fund manager Bill ackman invested 10% in FNMA and FMCC
maybe my blog post sparked his interest ;)    ( you never know )

Currently the stock is small ranges consolidation  and im looking for the first reversal green bar volume day
would like to see a 20mill+ vol day.
I do believe this will be a jan play runner also the chart is beauty  makes a move consolidates which is really bullish setting up nice support areas for this stock

stock runs  pulls back digests and runs again  next run when it breaks 3.50 i think its gonna see 4.50-5  then some more consolidation before next leg

I will look to get in when i see a sign of reversal with volume

First picture daily chart 2nd weekly chart

I still believe this can see 10-15 when it gets running again

Check out $AAMRQ  everyone thought this was done for this bankrupt stock went from .40 to 7 then crashed to $2 then rips to 13 over the next 3 months  insane-  this was all news based and merger business but still  people think its over then bam starts creeping higher

Suretrader for daytrading? is it still worth it?

I have been with suretrader for 2 years.  I am grateful for the fact that i could daytrade with very little capital and grateful for the short list they had.

Just recently past 3-6 months they have changed dramatically and i hate it.  They  no longer offer free ECN routes.

Before there used to be no ECN fees on OTC stocks.
NOW  they charge .001 per share.  Ex:  10,000 shares buy u get charged $10 + 10 to sell

BEFORE they had free routes for NYSE /nasdaqs + they had options to choose certain routes
The cheapest route i found was POSTL   10,000 shares for $3 +3 to sell

Now its highway robbery.10,000 shares   for $30 + 30 to sell  ECN fees + $5 x2 commission  fees

When i asked them about ECN rebates i got this reply
"No we do not have any ECN Rebates and ECN fees are no longer free according to management." 

I can no long trade the way i am used to trading which sucks. 

Now lets talk about the short sale restriction they added.  

Before there was no 2.50 rule  now they have it which SUCKS!!!

so you have 50,000 account u can short 20,000 shares of stocks priced below 2.50 

before u could short the cash value  Example:  .25 stock u could short 200,000 shares if they had that many shares avail 

I could still trade with them and even not mind the HUGEEEE ECN fees if i were making big $$$  at least 1,000 -5000 per trade  but the way i scalp it is no longer profitable for me to be with them  they just steal all my profits.  

They still have a good short list compared to most brokers but the fees they just fucked themselves over.  im a very active trader and it saddens me they had to stoop to this level increase ECN fees and remove the free routes. 

They are still a good broker for daytrading if you got little capital.  but for me i dont like these changes. 

I am still with them and i probably will not close my account.  i will look for a different broker to be my "MAIN" broker and ill have little capital here and build a small account again for fun

This is the previous blog post when i first wrote about suretrader :

If you got any questions ask here or ask me on my twitter 

USAT will it triple in 2014? Jan Play

Jan 5 2014

(NASDAQ: USAT)  -  USA Technologies, Inc.
1/3/14 close  $1.85  61.87M market cap    
33 mill shares 
beta: 2.65


USA Technologies, Inc. is a provider of technology-enabled solutions that facilitate electronic payment transactions and value-added services primarily within the unattended Point of Sale (POS) market. The Company is a provider in the small ticket, beverage and food vending industry. The Company has designed and marketed systems and solutions that facilitate electronic payment options, as well as telemetry and machine-to-machine (M2M) services, which include the ability to remotely monitor, control, and report on the results of distributed assets containing its electronic payment solutions. The Company also manufactures and sells energy management products that reduce the electrical power consumption of equipment, such as refrigerated vending machines and glass front coolers. As of June 30, 2012, the Company had approximately 164,000 connections to its ePort Connect service.

(info from google finance ^^)

My price target :  Longer term $10+
Short term : 2.50-3+

Pretty interesting company from what i read above. Now lets go to the technicals and why i believe this will be a great jan play + 2014 big mover.   

The biggest move it has made was in 2011 also on the largest volume  went from 1.08 to a high of 3.74 a little over 250% move in the first 4-5 months after that it sold off rest of the year right back to where the first move started and bounce again and since then the past 2 years hasnt really done much and volume has been light    WEEKLY 4 year chart 

Just a guess here that the run in 2011 may have been a "story" run.   the past 2 years we havent had a 2 million+ vol green day.  we didnt even have a few back to back 1+ mill vol days  
if we can see 1 of those happen this year could be the start of a major trend shift  to 5+.  
We have earnings coming up on Jan 27 2014 (maybe 28) so this could be a spark to a big move that is brewing this year.

Currently the daily chart is pending breakout over 1.90 its game time. 
Resistance points after that $2  then 2.20 and if volume its high enough its headed 2.50+   52week high of 2.75 could get crossed easily if volume im looking for comes in 

Weekly chart tighter range 

Something will spark a move in this whether it be this company is undervalued or going to do something huge to get investors interest like $HIMX did in 2013 stock and volume exploded 500% cause company announced GOOGLE glass news 
Take a look at chart 

Disclaimer:  I long shares of USAT and will trade in and out of it as i please.  

Thursday, October 17, 2013

ONVO the next TSLA?

                                                      ONVO  Organovo Holdings Inc 

Delayed this blog post for sometime but its finally time to stop being lazy and write it up.  My thoughts are not organized but just read it anyways.

I believe that ONVO will be the next TSLA  like mover.. but even bigger.

here is a video of theirs from the site :

I dont do research or anything like that. i just read up a few things on the company and thats all and i base my predictions off what i think is possible.

Example:  about 2 years ago i was pumping TSLA  this was trading in the 25-30s  i said that this will be the "future".  This stock is the AAPL of  Cars  everyone is going to want one and all they need is a spark to lite the fire on the stock for it to run to the 100's-200's. Especially since this was heavily shorted stock nobody understood the potential of this company  yet 40% of the float was short in the 30s,  man those dumb people . the stock did nothing for 2 years stayed in a 27-40 range then news hit gap the stock above 40 and bam the fire was lit.

Onvo  3-D printing of organs and stuff like that read the site to get the exact info.  
IF the company does succeed in doing so this will be WORLD changing.  This will be the biggest company in the world  i would have to assume in the 10's -100's of billions $$$.
think about it how much would you pay for a new liver?  Heart? Kidney? etc......

$6  and 450 million market cap  (info from Google finance)   currently
lets slap on a 10 billion market cap this puts the stock $130-150   20x currently levels  

now  this is a SPECULATIVE investment    think of this as a lotto that if it works out u can turn 10k into 200k+     the upside is limitless

blah blah blah    long story short    i believe this company has potential to become something huge

short term targets 6.30 break target 7.50  8.50  then  $10

LONG TERM PRICE TARGET  $100-200+  could be years from now who knows

any kind of good pr could spark a huge move in this but currently based on the chart long term consolidation smart money loading up below 6    sooner or later the sellers at 6 will vanish and this will be in the 10's
thats my current target $10  by next month
i got shares and options i will trade in and out of it


Saturday, October 5, 2013

FNMA 3rd epic run coming? $10?

FNMA currently 1.49

Wanted to do a blog post on this 2 weeks ago but got lazy.   Currently the stock has held $1 and when i thought it was over i was wrong and since it has held $1 i said at 1.25 the bottom on FNMA is in and that i believe we could be in store for a possible 3rd pump in 1 year.  Expect the unexpected  nobody thinks that FNMA is going to run again lets face it.
First run was .30 to 1.47 basically 400% 5 days.
2nd run happened after about month and half of consolidation. lets say avg entry on that .82  to 5.20  550% about .

now we crashed from 5.20s to 1 so the beauty of it is we didnt break $1  there is a buyer there that held it up for a reason as i see it.

currently we had our first 40million+ vol day after 2 months of doing nothing.  now i believe that we could potentially see a 3rd run in this stock before 2014 but it may take some time.

Lets do some math  lets say the avg consolidation area for FNMA was 1.20-1.30  the last run had a 150% increase lets give this also 150% .  so it runs 700% from the 1.25ish consolidation that brings this to $10-11 a share if we do get a 3rd run.

remember these are all "IFS"  

what i want to see is back to back at least 60-70 million increasing volume to signal a possible 3rd leg up.  they key breaking point is $2 and we need to get over that and possibly consolidate over there for a little while but if thats possible and the volume comes in we might have a monster mover going into 2014 imo.

if the 3rd run does start we will need to see at least 120-150 mill vol days above $2 just to cover the bag holders from the past run

i am now watching this stock every day looking for certain volume/price signals to tell me what it wants to do  ill post some charts below
Daily chart below

Resistances  1.80 and $2  and 2.40

All my thoughts are jumbled up there.  but im long 1k and will hold as long as previous weeks low is not broken which is 1.26 currently  i will be daytrading this whenever volume and range opens up.  i will add more to my long position once i get those huge volume days 60mill+ at the min

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

GMCR trade idea for tomorrow/this week

GMCR to me looks like it is setting up for a move to 61-62.50 by this week
i think markets got to rip past 1600 for this to happen  SPY 160-162

27% float short about 30-33 million shares

Break and hold above 58-58.30   target 60  then move to 61 then 62.50

Currently the stock has been in a 1 month consolidation
seen here

the current avg daily volume is 2.5 million

as you can see from the chart last time we had 2 green days it followed it by 2 more green days.

past 2 days i have noticed buyers at 56 holding this and then 57 today.

big move scenario
what i want to see based on volume to suggest that we may see a 5+ million volume day and possible a $2-3$ range  big 1 day move

3 minute volume pace of 50k shares      for a regular 2.5-3.5 mill vol   prob looking at a 20 k 3 min vol pace
5 min volume pace of 75k shares                                      35k

30 min candle 400-500k vol pace                          200-260k

or gmcr could just keep up with the low volume move higher  and put in a 3-3.5 mill volume day and creep higher $1-1.75 before a breakout.   but i feel that with this being a momentum stock that it will be picked up again and get pushed past 60 in 1 day move

closing price of the options on tuesday   just got it off google finance
if i see volume confirm for a possible  big move tomorrow i might go in heavy on the 58s for a daytrade and
59s for a lotto   and 57.50s for a swing


im long some gmcr 57.50 weekly calls.

Monday, March 11, 2013

GSVC twitter ipo run up 5bagger?

March 11 2013

MY PRICE TARGET for run up $13-15

the options are sooooo cheap

just found a good trade idea that could bring in 500%+ profits on a run up for twitter ipo

this stock made a pretty sick run into the FB ipo went from  $13 to $20 pretty nice move then crashed after the ipo cause fb sucks

Stock is  =  GSVC     GSV capital Corp

current price 8.87

11/14/12  bottom was put in at $7

stock seems to have bottomed and is gearing for a move higher prob to 10s near term.

article here says the ipo could be in august

seeking alpha article someone wrote

Sept 7.50  calls  currently 1.60-1.80   the premium on this is incredibly cheap   this gives you 6 months for the run up to happen.

the chart itself looks like it wants to run to 10 meaning those calls will be 2.50 + so 50%+ gain even without a catalyst

current support 8.00-8.30  

resistances 10 , 11